04 / CHURN AND RETENTION
Churn and retention calculator
What retention is costing you, what your NRR really is, and the MRR ceiling your churn rate imposes.
All calculatorsYOUR INPUTS
Every field is explained underneath it
$80,000
Monthly recurring revenue, meaning what all your subscriptions bill this month, excluding one off fees.
3%
Revenue lost from cancels and downgrades each month.
1.2%
Extra revenue from existing customers upgrading, adding seats or usage.
$9,000
Net new logos only.
$12,000
Used for logo count math.
REVENUE LOST TO CHURN, NEXT 12 MONTHS
$43K
gross MRR you must re-earn just to stand still
Net revenue retention
80%
Gross retention
69%
MRR in 12 months
$162K
RETENTION PICTURE
Net monthly movement
Expansion minus churn on the existing base
-1.80%
Average customer lifetime
One divided by monthly churn
33.3 months
Logos lost per year
Of roughly 80 current customers
24.5
Growth ceiling at this churn
Where new MRR exactly equals churned MRR
$500K MRR
Churn cost over 3 years
Compounded, assuming the rate holds
$137K
ARR in 12 months if churn halved
Same new business with half the leak, versus $1.95M at current churn
$2.20M
THE VERDICT
You have a hard ceiling at $500K MRR
At this churn and new business rate, growth flattens there no matter what you spend. Either lift expansion above churn or cut churn to move the ceiling.
HOW THIS IS CALCULATED
- NRR is one plus expansion minus churn, compounded over 12 months. It is the metric that most directly predicts your valuation multiple.
- Your growth ceiling is new MRR divided by churn minus expansion. Below that number growth is arithmetic, and above it growth is impossible without fixing retention.
- Under 3 percent annual logo churn with strong NRR is premium territory, while 8 percent or more annual churn commonly trades at 3 to 5 times ARR or less.
- Expansion revenue is cheaper than acquisition, so one point of expansion is worth several points of paid efficiency.
Want the version with your real numbers in it?
We will pull your actual cohort data, rebuild these models against it, and tell you which single lever moves your growth the most.
Estimates only, for general information. Outputs depend entirely on the accuracy of your inputs. Benchmarks reflect 2026 lower middle market SaaS data. Nothing here is financial, tax, legal or investment advice, and no advisory relationship is created by using this page.